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RumRunner

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Reply with quote  #1 
I didn't think it was going to happen, but '12 Years a Slave' seems to be going through some last-minute backlash - as is evident by it's WGA snub.  What could this mean for the film having been left out of the Best Adapted Screenplay category at this year's WGA awards?  This looks like, at the end of the day, that this race could be Gravity's to lose.  These late-season snubs show how films tend to either gain, or lose traction.  For '12 Years a Slave' to regain momentum, Steve McQueen would have to take the DGA, this coming weekend.  Also, the BAFTA awards would have to swing in '12 YAS's favor.  So far, though, it seems as though 'Gravity' is pulling away in the Best Picture, and Best Director races.  
RumRunner

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Reply with quote  #2 
One topic I think is worthy of note is the Best Actor race, this year.  While everyone says that Best Actor, and Best Supporting Actor are locked in, we should remember that very rarely does the Academy award both leading and supporting actor in the same film.  There have been only a few exceptions.  Ben-Hur, and Mystic River, namely.  So far, it looks as though Matthew McConaughey is the front-runner.  But let's not underestimate the power behind '12 Years a Slave' and Chitewel Ejiofor.  Now, if these two were to split the votes, this could allow Bruce Dern to sneak in a win, which would be a nice surprise.  Leonardo DiCaprio may have won the GG, but he has had very little momentum since then.  'American Hustle' has been losing traction for some time, now.  Christian Bale would need a miracle to win this one.  To be honest, while I have Matthew McConaughey as the projected winner for Best Actor, I would like to see Bruce Dern take it home.  
karldelo

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Reply with quote  #3 
"12 Years a Slave" was deemed ineligible for WGA since it wasn't written under their guidelines, so that wasn't telling. I think what is telling in this race is the fact that "12 Years" and "Gravity" tied at PGA. The fact that they tied isn't the issue, the issue is that "American Hustle" was essentially in third place. If anyone was expecting a tie at PGA, I thought "American Hustle" would be one half. At this point in the race, I feel as if "Hustle" is losing a lot of momentum and there is a backlash in place. Many critics have been saying that the praise for the film was premature and that it is severely flawed. I personally loved the film, but I see where they are coming from. 

I truly think that this is a race between "12 Years" and "Gravity". At this point, without Best Picture to consider, I have the former winning 4 and that latter winning 5 (compared to the 7 that most are predicting). I think that it's going to go the way of the past few years of the Oscars, the CGI-driven spectacle (Life of Pi, Hugo) leads the total wins, but the historical piece (The Artist, Argo) wins Best Picture.

The only way I can see "Gravity" win at this point is if voters are turned off by "12 Years" and would like to go with the safer choice of "Gravity".
karldelo

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Reply with quote  #4 
I also think for the Best Picture race (that I've essentially beaten to a pulp) will depend a lot on which film gets the most second and third place votes. If a voter puts "Dallas Buyers Club" in first, then I think they put "12 Years" in their second, if they put "Her" in first, then I would say "Gravity" is put in second. Those are the two "below the line" films that will help determine the ultimate winner. The second place film on a voters' ballot who voted for "Philomena" would probably go to "American Hustle", however there won't be an overwhelming number of voters voting for "Philomena".

Of course, this is not a perfect indicator, but with a race that is so close up front every last vote will count.
RumRunner

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Reply with quote  #5 
I agree with your assessment of 'American Hustle.'  I liked the film, too.  But it was pretty flawed.  It seemed to dance around, somewhat, and didn't really have much fluidity to it.  The thing that I would have against '12 Years a Slave' winning Best Picture is if it was politically motivated and the Academy caved in to the extreme liberals who are basically saying that if they don't vote for '12 YAS', they're racists.  The Academy has been plagued by this scenario before, so I'm sure they'll do what they think is right.  After all, I remember not too long ago when 'Brokeback Mountain' was the projected winner for Best Picture.  But lo and behold, 'Crash' wins Best Picture - much to the surprise of the viewing public.  But I didn't hear a lot of propaganda from the liberal body telling them that if they didn't vote for 'Brokeback Mountain' that they were homophobes.  

As for 'Gravity', I'm actually very surprised it got as much recognition as it has, thus far.  Though, I do agree with Alfonso Cauron getting all the Best Director recognition he can get, since he doesn't lapse one minute in his film.  Every second of that movie is put to good use.  A lot of directors will throw together some off-kilter subplot that doesn't make much sense just to develop character, but doesn't really get the right message across.  This was a similar case with 'American Hustle.'  Although, Jennifer Lawrence, I believe, gave a much better performance than Lupita Nyong'o.  But I would really like to see a surprise in Best Supporting Actress this year and see June Squibb win for 'Nebraska.'  In fact, for your edification, here are my selections for the respective categories this year, if I were the one doing the Oscar voting:

BEST PICTURE:  Dallas Buyers Club
BEST DIRECTOR:  Alfonso Cauron - Gravity
BEST ACTOR:  Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:  Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
BEST ACTRESS:  Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:  June Squibb - Nebraska
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:  John Ridley - 12 Years a Slave
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:  Spike Jonze - Her
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:  Inside Llewyn Davis
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:  The Great Gatsby
BEST FILM EDITING:  Captain Phillips
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:  Dallas Buyers Club
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:  Her
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:  'Let It Go' - Frozen
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:  12 Years a Slave
BEST SOUND EDITING:  Captain Phillips
BEST SOUND MIXING:  Gravity
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:  The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:  Frozen
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:  The Great Beauty
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:  The Act of Killing

I don't really pay much attention to the short subjects, but there you have it.  What do you think?  And what would your choices be?
karldelo

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Reply with quote  #6 
This is how I would vote.

BEST PICTURE: 12 Years a Slave
BEST DIRECTOR: Alfonso CuarĂ³n - Gravity
BEST ACTOR: Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street 
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
BEST ACTRESS: Sandra Bullock - Gravity
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Lupita Lyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: John Ridley - 12 Years a Slave
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Spike Jonze - Her
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Inside Llewyn Davis
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: The Great Gatsby
BEST FILM EDITING: Captain Phillips
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: Dallas Buyers Club
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Her
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: 'Let It Go' - Frozen
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: 12 Years a Slave
BEST SOUND EDITING: Captain Phillips
BEST SOUND MIXING: Inside Llewyn Davis
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Gravity
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Frozen
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The Hunt
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: The Act of Killing
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